At Bulls Eye Research our goal is to provide stock recommendations, both long and short, that will outperform. We use a combination of fundamental and technical analysis to increase the probabilities of a successful outcome. We have successfully employed market timing in order to provide better entry and exit of positions. Over the past 10+ years since the inception of Bulls Eye Research in January 1996 we have managed to forecast in advance most important market changes in trend. We emphasize strict money management principles and the importance of being flexible. Want some real-life examples?
In MSR # 452 July17, 2007 we wrote on page 7,
One Last Postscript: We previously forecast that Volatility would rise significantly this year, in conjunction with a rise in Nasdaq stocks, and that is happening in the VXO, VIX and VXN. But we would like to add that many hedge funds find themselves in a position where they feel it is wise to lock in short-term profits. This has led to turnover at a rate which seems greater than ever. But it is also forcing more conservative managers to follow suit because no one wants to have their positions move 15 – 20% against them even for a week. Thus we get added volatility which reinforces itself. And we get reversal weeks like the one we are in now. There is no good answer to this dilemma, except to understand the market pressures and protect oneself as best one can.
In MSR # 451 July 17, 2007 we wrote on page 7,
Basic Materials: The XLB continues its lengthy run of strength. It is getting the kind of territory with some of the oscillators (such as the CCI and RSI) that suggest a correction will probably take place within a few weeks. It is traditional here at BER to look for a correction to start to form in August for a peak from mid-August to mid September. The market may be setting up for another swoon to clear the decks again this year – but we will look to use this pullback to add new positions. In the meantime, investors need to be fully invested.
In MSR # 447 June 5, 2007 we wrote on page 13,
Market: The S&P (above) is flirting with new all-time intraday highs. This would be a natural area for the market to have a reversal attempt, especially after making new highs, as it tries to create cries of “double-top” ringing throughout the canyons of Wall Street. It has been an astounding run since just last Summer, so a breather would not be out of order either.
In MSR # 446 May 29, 2007 we wrote on page 9,
Third Year of Election Cycle: Using the S&P500 for analysis, a high is usually generated in the spring/early summer of the ‘third year’….Based upon our measurements the target resistance for the current rally is 1565-1580… if it runs up to there without another consolidation, the market may very well get exhausted short-term and require another correction to reset public fear levels.
From a timing perspective we are now far enough along to generate a short-term high. If it were to falter here, then it would relate with the two poor years (1979 & 1995) that only managed to rally 11% and 24% into the spring (however each of those years went on to produce a higher high in the third quarter.)
In MSR # 445 May 22, 2007 we wrote on page 3,
Banks: Long-term the financials still look okay. Short-term there are some negative divergences which are building – we would not be surprised to see some corrective behavior here also near –term. It would be very bullish if the BKX could slide back towards the 100 -108 area amidst rising fear for the financials, so it could build new energy towards higher highs. The way it is behaving right now, it will be difficult for it to hold on any attempt to make higher highs now without further consolidation.
In MSR # 443 May 9, 2007 we wrote on page 13,
Short-term Divergences: The NYSE (above) has nicely made new highs. But the weekly RSI is actually lower than it was in Feb. The negative divergence in late February against the December 2006 high for the RSI was a contributing factor, but not the cause, of the late Feb. swoon. Also we see below that the NYSE New Highs are shrinking as the Index plows higher – another divergence. ….There are no real sell signals yet, but we’d recommend holding off marginal new purchases until there is a pullback.
In MSR # 433 Feb. 21, 2007 we wrote,
“In the very short-term there is a possible yellow light given the recent action in the S&P plus the other technical factors noted here in this report recently, but it should not disrupt our strategy. Of course, it would be to no one's surprise if we get a correction starting soon, a correction that could easily probe 1400. But the market is not done on the upside and we will see 1500 - at least - before is all over. I think DJIA 15,000 – 15,350 is achievable too. So investors have to buy stocks when opportunities present themselves, especially if the market drops based on fear…IOW, we still anticipate the next correction should be used to as a buying opportunity, as long as we don’t violate any important support levels. If we can generate the same kind of negative psychology and oversold readings as we did in June, it should be another fantastic chance to buy.” We still hold to this as our general strategy.
From our MSR # 401, June 8 2006 (see it and others at our "Sample Research" page): "The Bullish Setup Has Arrived: On Thursday the New York Stock Exchange said it instituted trading limits after the New York Composite Index (NYA) lost 160 points. That is the rule (see more below). Also, during the day downside volume exceeded 90% of total volume, and total volume rose to extremes. In other words, today was the type of panic day one sees near important turns. Also worth mentioning is the put/call ratio has shown extreme pessimism recently plus the VIX has gotten very extreme. All signs the correction is ending.”
“Near-term: There are only a couple of things lacking from making this a ‘load the boats’ low. For one thing, whenever we get a deep penetration of previous support, i.e. today’s low of 1235 vs. the Nov-Dec and May low of 1245, we expect to see at least a re-test of some sort of that low. The last example of this was in October 2005. On that occasion the low day was Oct.13th; it rallied for two more days, then fell for a day and a half; retested in the days following and then launched on Oct. 28th on the Bernanke appointment. Something similar may happen in coming days. Or perhaps it might even make a better stab at flushing out weak hands with a thrust towards 1220-1225 or below. All we know is this…..
Intermediate Term: We know that portfolio managers should put money to work right here. While more nimble managers might want to play for a more perfect setup, we’d say put money to work now and if it holds 1235 or *especially if it goes lower* get more aggressive.
In recent days we’ve mentioned several names that are setting up as buys. Note how well Apple hung in there today. Ditto for RIMM, LSCC, HD, MO, BA (and other defense names). We also have trading buy signals on some of the homebuilders as we did last October. Just to name a few.”
One can see we not only called this expected Summer 2006 decline a great buy setup, but we even predicted in advance that a test of SP 1220 -1225 was the low target. What was the ACTUAL low for the S&P (on June 14th, just days after this report was published)? The actual low was 1219.26.
Furthermore, RIMM (noted in the June 8th report) was trading around $64 then; on Sept.29th 2006 RIMM broke out to trade above $104.
This is just the latest real-time proof we can make a substantial positive impact on returns for investors, especially for professionals who need to be fully invested at all times. We have a superior 10 year track record of anticipating both advances and declines - just enough ahead of the event to enable even the largest investors to position their portfolios to take advantage of the market's inevitable swings and sector rotation. Ask for a free trial and find out for yourself.
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